Here at SA Tour Golf we are offering punters a betting angle for the Nedbank Golf Challenge. We have canvassed the thoughts of Mike Green (former Sunshine Tour communications manager) and Gary Lemke, three-time SA Sports Writer of the Year and golf magazine editor.
MIKE GREEN says:
Oliver Bekker
Last time Bekker played a tournament at Gary Player Country Club, he was only kept out of the winner’s circle by an incredible final-round 65 from Daniel van Tonder in the 2021 South African Open Championship.
Bekker also has won one of his seven Sunshine Tour titles on the Sun City course, the 2016 Sun City Challenge, so he clearly has the tools for the one of the longest courses he will play this year on the DP World Tour. With an average driving distance this year of 311.65 yards, he’s 12 yards longer than the tour average, and that helps him set up another strength of his game. He’s also inside the top 20 on tour in putts per greens in regulation, and with a good week with his approach game to the course’s small greens, he could turn out to be quite a handful for any opposition.
It’s the time of year that South African players historically get themselves up, the time when the big tournaments co-sanctioned by big tours bring out the best in the big players. Bekker has had a good first full season on the DP World Tour, with eight top-10 finishes. That includes his near miss when he was runner-up after losing in a play-off to Spain’s Adri Arnaus in the Catalunya Championship in Spain in May.
He’s played just one tournament on the Sunshine Tour this season, and he made it count with a share of third in tough conditions in the Vodacom Origins of Golf Final at Pinnacle Point at the end of last month.
Way to bet: 50-1 to win, 10-1 to finish in the top 3 and 7-1 to be top South African
Thriston Lawrence
There’s a lot at stake for the two-time winner on the DP World Tour this season: If Lawrence stays inside the top 10 of the rankings, he will get an exemption on to the PGA Tour. That’s still a huge incentive, even in the days of LIV Golf.
He has eight top-10 finishes on the DP World Tour this season, including his fortunate win in the Joburg Open and his fine victory in the Omega European Masters in August. He also has recent good form with a share of sixth in last month’s Andalucia Masters.
His most recent good result at Sun City was a share of sixth in June last year in the SunBet Challenge-Sun City, and he had a share of 19th at five-under in the South African Open Championship last December.
While he’s not much above average in distance off the tee on the DP World Tour – he averages 302.20 compared to the 299.02 average for the tour – he does hit more greens in regulation than average. And, at eighth on the tour’s stroke average list, he’s clearly capable of going low when he gets on a run.
Way to bet: 40-1 to win, 8-1 to finish in the top 3 and 13-2 to be top South African
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
His share of sixth in the South African Open Championship at the Gary Player Country Club last year featured a closing round of five-under-par 67, and that showed that Bezuidenhout has the ability to tame the course.
He has no recent form in South Africa, but he has solidified into a player who frequently looks the part since he has made a home for himself on the PGA Tour. But with 2020 victories in three of South Africa’s most important tournaments – the Dimension Data Pro-Am, the South African Open Championship and the Alfred Dunhill Championship – he has the skillset to be one of the home favourites this week.
His temperament was tested and found to be more than sufficient with his Presidents Cup performances in trying conditions for the International Team, so the lack of recent form is not a real indicator of how he should fare in home conditions.
With a swing of real beauty and efficacy, the sense that he will break through sooner rather than later is always palpable.
Way to bet: 18-1 to win, 7-2 for a top 3 and 7-2 to be top South African
GARY LEMKE says:
Welcome to Africa! This year’s Nedbank Golf Challenge field might be a little short of some of the stardust that has been sprinkled around its greens over the past few decades, but the Gary Player Country Club layout will again live up to its billing.
They call it ‘Africa’s Major’, which might be a bit of a stretch considering the highest-ranked player in the field is world 25th-ranked Tommy Fleetwood. The 2019 champion – can you believe that’s the last time this famous event was staged? – is the only golfer in the world’s top 50 coming to Sun City, and he is the obvious favourite to make it back-to-back wins.
He also happens to be one of my three favourites. The manner in which Fleetwood dominated the par fives in a final round 65 was staggering. Like fellow Englishman Lee Westwood the year before, the final round was where it all happened.
A personal bugbear is the expression ‘Moving Day’, reserved for the third round (usually the Saturday) of an event, because in a 72-hole tournament every round is moving day. And the last two Nedbank Golf Challenges have shown that it’s the Sunday where the most moving was done – Fleetwood’s 65 to win in 2019 and Westwood’s 64 the year before.
Fleetwood has “been there, done that” and been given the T-shirts. He is long and accurate off the tee and that helps so much when it comes to this course.
Players over the years have complained about the wind off the tees being tricky to fathom. They speak of standing on a tee and seeing the flags around the 18th green flapping in opposite directions to what they are experiencing out in the bush. It plays tricks with the mind.
The other imperative is to not try to over-power the course. Getting the ball in the right areas on the greens is most important. It’s much like Augusta, where three-putts are common if you haven’t nestled on the green in the right spot.
So, putting all those elements into the broth, these are my three choices for this year’s Nedbank Golf Challenge. I suggest you back them as below.
Tommy Fleetwood (10-1 to win, 2-1 for a top 3, 12-10 for a top 10)
Ryan Fox (22-1 to win, 44-10 for a top 3, 16-10 for a top 10)
Adrian Meronk (33-1 to win, 66–10 for a top 3, 3-1 for a top 10)
